Nationalist Leaders Sign Pact Saying ‘Constitutional Change Is Coming’

The leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin have signed a joint self-determination pact calling on Westminster to prepare for constitutional change across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Michelle O’Neill signed the memorandum in Cardiff on Monday.

It declares that “constitutional change is coming” and calls on the UK government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction.”

There is an important constitutional distinction.

The three signed as party leaders, not in a capacity that formally binds their respective devolved governments.

Their parties also want different things on different timetables.

The SNP wants another Scottish independence referendum within five years.

Sinn Féin expects a referendum on Irish unity by 2030.

Plaid Cymru has ruled out holding a Welsh independence referendum during its first term.

Support for separation also differs substantially between the three nations.

Recent polling cited by The Guardian puts independence support at around 47% in Scotland, 36% in Northern Ireland and 32% in Wales.

Westminster can block votes. It still has to win the argument.

The striking feature of the Cardiff meeting is not that Britain is suddenly about to break apart.

It isn’t.

It is that separatist parties now simultaneously occupy the First Minister posts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Westminster retains considerable constitutional power over whether and when referendums take place.

That can prevent a vote.

It cannot manufacture support for the Union.

If the United Kingdom is to survive over the longer term, Unionism eventually has to offer something stronger than the ability to say no.