Democrats Open Seven-Point Congressional Lead as 63% Reject Trump’s $5,000 Promise

Democrats have opened a seven-point national congressional lead over Republicans as a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows voters increasingly favouring them on the economy – and overwhelmingly rejecting Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment.

The poll puts Democrats ahead by 44% to 37% on the generic congressional ballot.

It is the largest Democratic advantage recorded by Reuters/Ipsos since Trump returned to the White House.

Trump’s own approval rating has recovered slightly from its record low of 33%, but remains at 35%.

The more difficult numbers for Republicans sit underneath it.

Asked about Trump’s promise to provide every American adult with a $5,000 payment if Republicans retain control of Congress, 63% disapproved.

The proposal was designed as an unmistakably populist offer to voters.

So far, voters do not appear particularly impressed.

More consequentially, Democrats have also moved marginally ahead on an issue Republicans traditionally need to own.

Asked which party has the better approach to the economy, 38% chose Democrats and 37% Republicans.

One point is hardly a commanding advantage.

The fact that Republicans are no longer clearly ahead is the problem.

Trump returned to office with the economy central to his political appeal. If voters increasingly associate Republican government with economic dissatisfaction, the party enters the midterms without one of its strongest traditional advantages.

There are important limits to the numbers.

The Reuters/Ipsos survey covered 1,143 adults and carries a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

A national generic ballot also does not translate directly into congressional seats. Individual races, turnout and the geographic distribution of support will determine control of the House and Senate.

But Republicans do not need a seat forecast to recognise the direction of travel.

Democrats lead the congressional ballot 44-37.

Nearly two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

And the Republican advantage on economic competence has disappeared.

Trump’s approval may have bounced two points.

The numbers underneath it did not.

Source

• Reuters – Trump approval rises slightly but Republican midterm outlook worsens