Sweden’s election has tightened dramatically to a projected 175 seats for the centre-left and 174 for the governing right as actual votes begin replacing exit-poll estimates. One seat could decide the government.
The first SVT exit poll suggested a comfortable centre-left victory of 183 seats to 166.
That picture has rapidly changed.
With results from around 10% of voting districts incorporated, SVT’s projection now gives:
Centre-left: 175
Right: 174
There are 349 seats in Sweden’s Riksdag.
175 is the smallest possible majority.
The latest party projection puts the Social Democrats on 27.6%, the Moderates on 20.0%, the Sweden Democrats on 17.5% and the Liberals on 5.5%.
The count remains at an early stage.
ONE SEAT
The stakes are substantial for the Swedish Right.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government has spent four years tightening immigration and crime policy.
The Sweden Democrats entered this election hoping a right-bloc victory would take them into government for the first time.
Initial exit polling appeared to have closed that route.
Now it is alive again.
Sweden experienced something similar in 2022, when the exit poll initially favoured the centre-left before the final result produced a right-bloc victory.
Tonight’s movement is another warning against calling elections before the votes are counted.
183–166 became 175–174.
Sweden is now one seat from going either way.
Sources
The Guardian: Live Swedish election results and SVT projection
Reuters: Swedish election context and exit polling
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