Germany’s political centre takes a double hit as AfD wins in northeast and Left takes Berlin

Germany’s traditional political centre has suffered defeats from opposite directions on the same night, with the AfD finishing first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania while the Left Party won Berlin.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, projections put the AfD on 38.3%, ahead of the centre-left SPD on 35.4%.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU collapsed to 4.9%, potentially leaving the party below the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.

If confirmed at that level, it would represent the CDU’s worst result in any German state election since 1949.

Merz described the result as a “disaster”, but said he intends to continue pursuing his government’s reform programme.

AfD tops second eastern state vote

The result gives the AfD its second first-place finish in a German state election this month, following its success in Saxony-Anhalt.

Despite finishing first, the AfD is unlikely to govern Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania because Germany’s other major parties continue to rule out coalition agreements with it.

The result nevertheless demonstrates the scale of the political realignment taking place in parts of eastern Germany.

Economic weakness, living costs, pensions and Germany’s support for Ukraine all featured prominently during the campaign.

The CDU’s result is particularly damaging for Merz because his government is already struggling with weak approval ratings and opposition to its economic reforms.

Berlin moves sharply left

The result in Berlin produced a very different winner but another defeat for the established governing parties.

The Left Party won 25.3%, ahead of the CDU on 19%, the AfD on roughly 16% and the SPD on 12.1%.

It is the first time the Left has finished first in a Berlin state election.

Lead candidate Elif Eralp immediately reiterated one of the campaign’s most consequential promises: nationalising major private housing associations.

The proposal could transfer approximately 220,000 homes into state ownership.

An SPD official estimated that doing so could cost around €20 billion, while Reuters reported that a recent Infratest Dimap survey found only 37% support for nationalisation.

Berlin voters had previously backed the principle in a 2021 referendum, when 58% supported legislation to nationalise large corporate landlords. Whether the latest proposal can actually be implemented remains uncertain.

The centre squeezed from both directions

The two elections produced very different political outcomes.

The AfD’s success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reflects its continuing rise in eastern Germany, while Berlin voters delivered victory to a party advocating extensive intervention in the housing market.

What connects the results is the punishment inflicted on Germany’s traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.

Merz’s CDU could disappear entirely from one state parliament while losing control of another.

The SPD performed strongly enough to finish second in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but collapsed to just 12.1% in Berlin.

Germany is not simply moving uniformly to the right or the left.

Its voters are increasingly willing to move away from the political centre in both directions.

Sources

• Reuters: AfD victory and Merz’s CDU collapse
• Reuters: Left wins Berlin and pledges housing nationalisation