Sweden Democrats May Have Won the Immigration Argument — and Lost the Election

Sweden’s first two election-day surveys put the centre-left clearly ahead, while the Sweden Democrats appear to have lost support since 2022. Yet the party may already have achieved something more consequential: changing Sweden’s immigration argument.

SVT’s Valu survey puts the centre-left bloc on 51.3% against 46.8% for the right.

TV4’s separate survey gives the centre-left the same 51.3%, against 47.0% for the right.

The Sweden Democrats, who entered the election hoping to join government for the first time, are estimated at between 17.2% and 18.5%.

They won 20.5% in 2022.

These are exit polls, not final results. Sweden’s 2022 exit poll initially put the centre-left ahead before the final count produced a right-bloc victory.

THE ARGUMENT HAS ALREADY MOVED

The Sweden Democrats built their rise around immigration, crime and national identity.

Four years later, Swedish immigration policy is substantially tougher.

Asylum numbers have fallen to a 40-year low under the current government.

Even the Social Democrats have moved towards a more restrictive immigration position.

That creates a possibility that would have seemed extraordinary during the Sweden Democrats’ years on the political margins.

The party may have changed Swedish politics so successfully that voters no longer need to vote Sweden Democrat to get tougher immigration policy.

That carries a warning for populist parties elsewhere.

Winning an argument can eventually weaken your ownership of it.

Once mainstream parties absorb the policies that drove an insurgent party’s rise, that party needs another reason for voters to choose it.

If tonight’s numbers survive the count, the Sweden Democrats may have fallen short of government.

They may also have won the immigration argument that transformed Swedish politics.

Sources

SVT: Swedish election coverage and Valu survey

TV4: Election-day survey puts centre-left ahead

Reuters: Sweden election background and stakes